Macro Hedge

John Balafoutas | June 14th, 2023

đź’­ Quote of the Day

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

Mike Tyson

What Really Matters

Well it only took the highest rake hiking cycle in quite some time but we’re on the right track. 

By the numbers: Inflation for May came in at 4%, around half of last year’s peak which shows price pressure is cooling, but still remains above the Fed’s preferred 2% level.

  • The consumer-price index, a measure of inflation Y/Y, peaked at 9.1% last June and came in at 4.9% in April

  • While some remain hopeful, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, explains that “directional progress should not be confused with mission accomplished”

Stay tunned: Today is the day the Fed will decide if they will continue to raise rates or take a step to the side, albeit temporarily. Markets are pricing in a rate hiking pause given yesterdays positive inflation data.

  • Stock markets are sure to be keeping a close eye on todays announcement and could see another rise if the Fed chooses to pause

Stock markets @ 2:00 PM watching Jerome Powell announce the Fed’s decision

But John, I thought you only wrote about Finance and the Economy? Yes, I do and this story does tie into the economy, but you also just have to hear this

Never underestimate an underdog: The U.S. CIA warned the Ukrainian government not to attack the Nord Stream gas pipeline last summer after it obtained information about a Ukrainian plot to explode the pipeline, destroying a key energy connection between Russia and Europe.

  • While the warning was taken seriously, the CIA questioned whether Ukraine has the capacity or capabilities to carry out an attack like this

  • We’re talking about explosive charges being placed deep beneath the Baltic Sea. Like a July 4th party in the South type of explosives

A few weeks later, after getting the information, the pipeline was hit and took on major damage. Ukraine denied all allegations that it had anything to do with the attack.

But wait, there’s more: Dutch military intelligence told the CIA that a Ukrainian sabotage team was looking to rent a yacht on the Baltic coastline and used divers to plant explosives on the Nord Stream pipeline.

Boats and deep sea explosives

⚖️ No Easy Way Out

Case dismissed: A U.S. bankruptcy judge just threw out a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing of 3M subsidiary Aearo Technologies. The decision to dismiss this case puts doubt on a popular corporate strategy companies would use to offload large legal liabilities.

  • The strategy entails a large parent company isolating those legal liabilities to a lone subsidiary, and having the subsidiary file for bankruptcy

  • This, essentially, would remove the jury and removes any sympathy to the alleged victims. Instead a bankruptcy judge would allocate the money of the subsidiary to the group of claimants

  • This strategy was also used by J&J for their talc products and it was also dismissed

Market Movements

Dividing the news: Analysts from some of Wall Street’s top research shops have conflicting views on the current market. On one side, some analysts are saying that a bull market has not fully come to fruition. On the other side, some analysts are leaning towards a full on bull market that is here to stay.

Hot takes: 

  • Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s top stock-watcher explained that while the current rally has encourages individuals to declare an end to the bear market, “we respectfully disagree”

  • Bank of America Analysts wrote that “the bear market is officially over”

Whose right? Keep checking your investment accounts to find out!

Personal Finance Quick FAQs

Q: How should I invest in stocks?

Investing in Stocks

Investing in stocks can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it's important to do your research before you start buying stocks. Here are some tips on how to research stocks:

  • Start by understanding your investment goals. What are you hoping to achieve by investing in stocks? Are you saving for retirement, a down payment on a house, or something else? Once you know your goals, you can start to narrow down your search for stocks.

  • Do your research. There are a lot of resources available to help you research stocks. You can read analyst reports, look at financial statements, and follow news about the companies you're interested in.

  • Don't be afraid to ask for help. If you're not sure how to research stocks, there are plenty of people who can help you. Talk to a financial advisor, read books and articles about investing, or join an online forum.

Index Funds

Index funds are a type of mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks a specific market index, such as the S&P 500. Index funds are a good option for young and middle-aged adults who are looking for a low-cost, diversified way to invest.

Benefits to an Index Fund

  • Low cost: Index funds are typically very low-cost investments. This is because they don't have to pay for active management, which is the process of picking stocks and trying to beat the market.

  • Diversification: Index funds are diversified across a wide range of stocks, which helps to reduce risk.

  • Ease of use: Index funds are easy to buy and sell, and they can be held in a variety of accounts, such as a 401(k) or IRA.

Most Popular Index Funds

  • Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)

  • iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)

  • SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

  • Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX)

  • Schwab Total Market Index Fund (SWPPX)

These index funds are all low-cost and track the S&P 500, which is a broad market index that includes the 500 largest companies in the United States.

If you're not sure which index fund is right for you, talk to a financial advisor. They can help you choose an index fund that meets your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Disclaimer: This newsletter provides general information and is not financial advice. It discusses current events and personal finance topics for educational purposes only. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions. The accuracy and timeliness of information cannot be guaranteed. Use this newsletter as a starting point for research, but conduct due diligence and seek professional guidance for your specific financial needs